Aggregate Fluctuations with National and International Returns to Scale*

Aggregate Returns to Scale: Why Measurement Is Imprecise

The extent to which there are aggregate returns to scale at the level of aggregate production has important implications both for the types of shocks generating business cycles and for optimal policy. However, prior attempts to measure the extent of these returns using instrumental variable techniques have yielded quite imprecise estimates. In this article, we show that the production shocks im...

Aggregate Insider Trading and Future Stock Returns – International Evidence

In this study, I investigate the informativeness of aggregate equity purchases and sales by senior corporate officers and directors in a sample of 39 countries. I find that countrylevel insider trading signals are associated with future country-level market returns, controlling for other contemporaneous signals such as country-level earnings guidance and analysts’ forecasts, and risk factors su...

Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

This paper models uctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate uctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state| regardless of which it happens to be|contains strong predictive power for aggregate uctuations. This e ect is di cult to ...

Characterizing and finding full dimensional efficient facets of PPS with constant returns to scale technology

Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data

We develop a new general equilibrium growth accounting framework that features increasing returns to scale, imperfect competition and incorporates technological revolutions into the description of technical progress. We propose a way to tell apart revolutionary changes in technology and incremental innovations using stock market data. We use our framework to jointly estimate the overall embodie...